Update uncertainty calculations
Uncertainty calculations are currently not logical to explain and don’t accommodate AEFs where there is a baseline uncertainty w/o a solution uncertainty, which is common.
The conditional logic should be updated to align with the transformations in this sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LDpJV_oWXlcZVmfUZ9cvnAS5pw8QCNIiQ9TOTtv82Ts/edit?gid=0#gid=0
For example, this model has no uncertainty provided even though the baseline has an uncertainty, and this model uses the old mathematical method that should be deprecated.
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Comments3
emma.kast
Mar 13, 2025
To add to this - uncertainty on the market size is not currently displayed in app or used to calculate the uncertainty on the calculated avoided emissions. We should add this, especially since the market size is often the largest source of uncertainty!
aurora.ginzburg
Mar 17, 2025
Agree we should aim to get it in soon! Noting that a prereq to that is that Sci team would need to hand prod a spreadsheet showing how to handle combining market and ghg uncertainties in the total avoided emissions calc. I don’t recall a time we have done this math before so there is likely some methodology dev necessary.
Request to Amber/Cassie to please not let the market uncertainty be gating for implementing the above fix to the GHG uncertainties :)
science
Feb 25, 2025
See recommended AEF uncertainty calcs in this sheet